Monday, November 11, 2013

Economic & Employment Update: 11/08/2013


Hello Everybody,
               The big news last Thursday was Twitter’s IPO (NYSE: TWTR).  Shares opened at $26, above the $23 that had been predicted by analysts.  On hand to ring the opening bell on Wall Street yesterday were a few prominent Twitter users: a 9-year old lemonade stand owner, a representative of Boston police, and Patrick Stewart better known as “Captain Pickard” of Star Trek: The Next Generation #makeitso #outoftheirvulcanminds.  At the closing bell, Twitter shares had increased to $44.90 a share, creating overnight billionaires #notcomingtoworktomorrow. I hope you find the news below informative:
 
Economic news:
  • As of 1:56pm last Friday afternoon, our current national debt was $17,149,154,023,335.85.  The National Debt increased by $409 billion in October marking the 2nd highest single month increase in our national debt. The highest 1-month increase happened in October 2008 when Congress enacted TARP.  #putitonmytab #omgmakeitstop
  • Government Shutdown: I was completely wrong on my last email when I thought the shutdown was averted.  The government actually shut down for 16 days which hasn’t happened in 17 years when Newt Gingrich was house speaker under the Clinton administration #blameitonbill #blameitonnewt #blameitontherain.
  • Debt Ceiling Deadline: The president and congress decided to suspend the debt ceiling deadline until February 7th, 2014. Meanwhile, our debt continues to grow beyond the legal limit #procrastinators #illegalspending #printmoremoney
  • Q3 GDP: The U.S. economy expanded at 2.8% from July through September, nearly a whole percent higher than most economists had predicted.  However, analysts expect a lower growth rate for the 4th quarter due to the government shutdown.  
  • Income & Consumer Spending: The average American income increased 0.5% in September from the previous month, but consumer spending only increased 0.2% from 0.3% in August.  It appears we are saving more money and spending less. #tellmywifeplease (just kidding, +Leslie Lau-Wang)
  • Housing: New home construction starts continue to lag, and are still well below pre-recession levels. Supply constraint data suggest that we will continue to see housing prices increase. 
  • Economic recovery factors: Economic recovery depends on construction, more jobs for younger Americans, and more credit.  Today’s jobs report provided none of that. Younger Americans (aged 25 to 34) continue to be un- or underemployed, are saddled with student debt, and cannot qualify for today’s lowest mortgage rates.  First-time home buyers, typically younger Americans, have been essentially left out of this recovery. We need a solution to employ more younger Americans. Idle younger Americans also create excessive hashtags on social media #omgreally #findthemjobs #pleasestophashtagging.
  • Mortgage rates: Mortgage rates are on the rise again.  The average quoted rate for those with pristine credit and a large down will increase from 4.375 to 4.5% compared to 4.25 yesterday.
  • Commodities: Gas prices will continue to drop amid a stronger US Dollar.   The European Central Bank cut its interest rate to a record low of .25% hoping to stoke modest growth in Europe.  This cut weakened the euro and strengthened the US Dollar, making commodities less expensive for the U.S.  Perhaps Giselle Bundchen should consider being paid in US dollars again. #ilovegiselle #ihatetombrady
 
Employment news:
  • National unemployment: The nation added 204K jobs in October with unemployment slightly increasing to 7.3% from 7.2% in September. Furloughed government workers were counted among the unemployed, which accounts for the slight increase.
    • About 800K government workers were furloughed from 10/1 to 10/16. 
    • Federal government jobs fell by 12,000
    • The number of people seeking unemployment benefits have fallen to pre-recession levels.
  • California Unemployment: Data for September and October are missing and will not be available until 11/22 because the EDD was affected by the government shutdown.  #dumbexcuse #doyourjob #brainshutdown
  • Unemployment by Counties: Data unavailable, same reason above.
 
Upcoming Events:
  • The Institute of Internal Auditors, Orange County Chapter
o    Topic:                    Data Management Applying Data Analytics to a Continuous Auditing / Continuous Controls Monitoring Solution
o    Speaker:              Parm Lalli, CISA, ACDA
o    Location:             Equinox (1980 Main Street, Irvine, CA)
o    Date:                     Tuesday, November 19th, 2013
o    Time:                    11:30am – 1:00pm (1.5 CPE)
 
Okay, no more hashtags, #promise.
 
Barnaby
 
Here are links to sources referenced in my blog:
 
EDD Website (11/8/13)
 
STOCKS TANK, TWITTER SURGES, ECB SHOCKS THE MARKET: Here's What You Need To Know”, Business Insider (11/7/13)
 
Supermodel Bundchen Joins Hedge Funds Dumping Dollars”, Bloomberg (11/7/07)
 
Twitter ends first trading day at $44.90 a share, valued at more than $25B”, The Washington Post (11/8/13)
 
“5 things to know about Twitter’s IPO”, USA Today (11/7/13)
 
“Strong dollar drives oil lower”, Associated Press (11/7/13)
 
“Stellar jobs report is a downer for housing”, CNBC (11/8/13)
 
“Where the Private Sector’s Gains Are”, The New York Times (11/8/13)
 
Bureau of Labor Statistics
 
Treasury Direct (National Debt)
 
“Personal income jumps in September; consumer spending growth slows”, The Los Angeles Times (11/8/13)
 
Department of Numbers (California Unemployment)
 
“U.S. economy’s growth rate a strong 2.8% in 3rd quarter”, Associated Press (11/7/13)
 
 “Federal Debt Jumped $409 Billion in October; $3,567 Per Household”, CNS News (11/4/13)
 
 “U.S. economy adds 204,000 jobs in October”, Associated Press (11/8/13)

First Blog: *crickets chirping*

Hello world! I'll keep this introduction to my blog as short as possible.  If you're like me, you have the attention sp....OH SQUIRREL!  Anyways, I have been broadcasting a monthly email newsletter to my clients, candidates, friends, and pretty much anyone else that hasn't asked to unsubscribe. With my wife's encouragement, I will begin sharing this monthly newsletter which contains market and employment news with my snarky sarcastic commentary mixed in.  I am an armchair economist with no formal training, so feel free to email me when I've made a mistake. I do my best to paraphrase and explain current news in my own words, but I do sometimes plagiarize snippets from articles verbatim.  For this reason, I include links to my news sources at the bottom of my newsletter/blogs. Anyways, I'll post my first blog in a sec.  Shit, this intro is too long already.  Oh well.